Are you retiring in a recession? What you need to know

If you’ve been keeping an eye on your retirement portfolio for the past few months, you’ve probably noticed the value of your nest egg plummeting. From the start of 2022 through November 2, the value of the S&P 500 has fallen more than 21%, the Dow Jones is down more than 12% and the Nasdaq is down nearly 33%.

And the stock market isn’t the only aspect of the economy hurting soon-to-be retirees. in the past months, Inflation remains at record levels. The The Fed responded by raising interest rates Many expect the world Recession As businesses and consumers back away from buying and borrowing in response.

As people look to retire in the future, it may sound less optimistic. If you’ve spent the last few decades of your life stashing cash for your golden years, the recent market downturn, however, doesn’t mean your effort hasn’t.

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Saving for retirement 101

Most people have three main sources of income in retirement: personal retirement accounts (401(k)s and IRAs), pensions and Social Security.

However, most people will end up primarily relying on income from their retirement accounts. Most personal finance experts recommend saving in both a 401(k) and an IRA, be it Traditional IRA or Roth IRA. Select the rank Charles SchwabAnd the Fidelity InvestmentsAnd the forefront And the to improve As companies offer some Best Individual Retirement Accounts.

Most companies no longer offer employee pensions, and Social Security usually replaces only a small portion of people’s pre-retirement income. according to Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a person with a median lifetime income would only earn 37% of their pre-retirement income through Social Security benefits. This means that the responsibility for saving for retirement rests directly with the individual.

In general, personal finance experts recommend that retirees aim to save 25 times their annual living expenses. In other words, a person with annual living expenses of $40,000 should aim to save $1 million for retirement. In retirement, an individual will not withdraw more than 4% of their retirement portfolio annuallywith inflation control.

However, this rule has fallen out of vogue as people’s life spans have been lengthened, and the cost of living has increased. Since the 4% retirement rule depends on it Assumptions About how long people will live, portfolio allocation, and historical market returns, it’s not a one-size-fits-all rule.

Says Douglas Bonbarth, President great wealth.

In fact, Richard Seys, a professor of finance at the University of Arizona, recommends a much lower withdrawal rate. he is have found That people would actually need to withdraw 2.26% of their portfolio (assuming a 60/40 allocation of stocks and bonds) to have a 95% chance of success. In other words, if you annually withdraw 2.26% of your retirement egg, you have a 1 in 20 chance of running out of money before the end of retirement.

And if you’re concerned about the effect of the recent market downturn on the rate of withdrawal, researchers have looked at history to see how seniors behave in retirement in alcohol market. T. Ru price I looked at the post-retirement retail portfolio performance in bear markets in 1973, 2000 and 2008, and found that portfolio values ‚Äč‚Äčeventually rebounded or exceeded their original value after about 10 years.

The researchers note the importance of resilience in responding to a market downturn. Retirees must use a withdrawal rate that changes based on factors such as inflation, market volatility, and changes in individual spending needs to ensure long-term success.

Is it time to change your portfolio allocation?

If you keep a diversified retirement portfolio with 60% allocated to stocks and 40% to bonds, you’ve probably noticed that both asset classes have taken a big hit. From the beginning of the year until the end of September the value of the portfolio is 60/40 fell 20%.

There is no consensus among experts about what you should do with your portfolio.

If you are a skilled investor, Boneparth suggests taking advantage of the current downturn by Buy stocks or stock funds while they are low. But of course, if the market has not reached its lows yet, you are taking a risk.

Says Mark Peter, Director at california financial advisor. “Because we think there will be a better chance of rebalancing in the next year, two or three years.”

Since interest rates have an inverse relationship with bondsIt might not be a good idea Pour all your money into bonds too. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall, so the next interest rate hike by the Fed means current bonds will be less valuable in the future.

Shannon Sacosia, Chief Investment Officer, SVB Specialrecommends investors to refrain from making significant changes to their portfolios without Financial planner advice And try to stick to their long-term financial plan.

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Most importantly, there is no one-size-fits-all advice for investors about to retire. Your retirement plan needs to take into account many factors, whether it is how long you expect to live or how Your wallet is risky. Being flexible in how much the nest egg is withdrawn may be key to ensuring long-term success. This could mean fewer withdrawals in downturns in the market and more when the cost of living increases.

And if you think of Change your wallet allocation Now, you’ll want to make changes based on your long-term plan. With both stocks and bonds underperforming, this may not be the best time to make major changes to your portfolio, especially if the market continues to decline.

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Editorial note: The opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations in this article are those of the editorial board alone, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any third party.

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